Using Me!

It must be our fault!

It really annoys me when something is reported in the press whereby without any proper analysis it is assumed that some problem or phenomena is attributed to Global Warming (GW). Recently in the news, the numbers of large trees in Yosemite National Park has dropped over the last 60-70 years so that must be GW right? 

The article opens with:

The oldest and largest trees within California’s world famous Yosemite National Park are disappearing.

Climate change appears to be a major cause of the loss.

Really quite an aggressive and scare-mongering way to start I think! But if you read further:

The cause is difficult to pin down, but “we certainly think that climate is an important driver,” says Lutz.

So they think that climate is an important driver but nowhere do they provide any evidence. The problem is that the entire article is written to be about GW. Nowhere do they use those words, instead they use the covert secret code ‘climate change’ but we all know they are implying the human impact on the climate through warming.

And even if it is our fault… is this really a story worthy of much interest yet?

“We know that large trees disproportionately affect the ecosystem,” says Lutz. “But what the consequences could be of a decline in average large tree diameter, no-one really knows.”

So that’s a no then…

However I could suggest reasons why the numbers are declining that doesn’t invoke the dreaded GW! Crucially we note from the article that larger older trees are more able to withstand fire than other flora. Now I visited Yosemite in 1994 and at the time they had a policy of preventing natural fires in the park. When this happens the advantage the large trees have from their ability to survive such incidents is negated and they come under greater competition for resources from flora that would otherwise have died or been put back. Thereby some of the trees would have lost the battle for survival and this data supports the hypothesis that preventing fires causes reduction in large tree numbers.

Further, I visited Yosemite again in 2007. Sometime in the late 90’s there had been a massive wildfire in the park. It was severe because of the years and years of fire prevention (causing buildup of dead, flammable material) and in 2007 the devastation was still clear to see. A new policy is now in place to allow natural fires so far as they do not threaten human lives.

So my hypothesis can make a prediction here that will differ from the prediction of the ‘GW is to blame’ hypothesis. If I am right then the future will see an increase in the numbers of large trees back to whatever is a stable level. If their assumption is correct then the numbers will decline as the climate continues to warm up.