Election Speculation

Today the LibDems revealed they are talking to Labour about a coalition. Between them they do not have enough seats to form a majority but they would have more than the Conservatives and would have every right to form a minority government. They could pretty much count on getting enough more votes from the minority parties to work their way through most bills they might wish to pass.

The Conservatives for their part have offered the LibDems a referendum on the reforming the electoral system to use the Alternative Vote System. However the Conservatives are further away from the Liberals than Labour are, in their general ideologies and there’s plenty of backbenchers that aren’t keen on a coalition with them. Many of them would be happy to see a Lib/Lab coalition that pushes through the necessary unpopular tax and spending changes that will be needed to fix the economy and then in a few months force a general election on a vote of no confidence. They forsee themselves winning a majority in this second election because of the bills that need to be passed on the economy making Lib/Lab less popular and the fact that they can campaign on the message that the government is a coalition of losers – and with today’s revelation that Brown will stand down – that we again have an unelected Prime Minister.

However I foresee this backfiring BADLY on them. Most of the minority parties stand to gain (perhaps with the exception of one of the Irish parties) in an AVS electoral system. They mostly have a smaller share of the seats than their share of the vote. In addition those parties that failed to gain any seats would campaign hard for this system too. Remember from my earlier post that the BNP would stand to gain 12 seats and UKIP 22 in a pure proportional representation system. They wouldn’t gain that many under AVS (I still plan to write about why) but they could only benefit from it.

So, if Lib/Lab could push through the AVS system before a new election is called, by getting the backing of the smaller parties in Parliament as well, then in another election the two of them would start from having over 50% of the vote. They might lose a few, or even quite a lot of primary votes because of the above reasons, but they would most likely still pick up over 50% of the seats through the second or third votes that people place. In fact they would, in my opinion, more likely end up with closer to 60% of the seats between them. The conservatives would likely pick up around 35% of the seats and the last few would go to the minor parties. Lib/Lab could continue their coalition with a large majority.

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Magnetic Therapy, the Evidence

In preparation for my pursuit of the claims made by the purveyors of magnetic bracelets I decided to Google “Clinical Trial Magnet Therapy” in an attempt to find some proper trials and evidence. Conversely if you Google “Magnetic Healing” you’ll find thousands of hits for sales of the devices, their claims and no evidence.

My top 10 hits were:

1. BMJ Article on trials in 2006.

I don’t have access to this full article but based on other articles that refer to it, the findings were negative and the trial was rigorous.

2. A website trying to sell books on Magnet Therapy

The front page refers to three trials that produced positive results but there are no references to any papers so I cannot check for double-blinding etc.

3. The American Cancer Society

Although there are anecdotal reports of healing with magnetic therapy, available scientific evidence does not support these claims. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) considers magnets harmless and of no use for medical purposes.

Enough said!

4. A Wikipedia Article

Magnet therapy is considered pseudoscientific due to both physical and biological implausibility, as well as a lack of any established effect on health or healing.

The above quote just from the introduction links to two books and one article alone.

5. Anesthesia and Analgesia

A very good summary on how hard it is to disprove something that has so many claimed benefits. Fortunately trials have been run in some specific areas and if one claim is shown to be false it casts the others in a very poor light. Not only that but when it comes to advertising you have to be able to show evidence for your claims not a lack of evidence to the contrary.

6. Strangely is the same as hit number 5.

7. The ‘evidence’ from a company selling Magnetic Therapy products

There is a vast amount of text on this site and I have read through a good chunk of it. By following a few links one can get some excerpts of research papers which have been published. Some of these excerpts show that the trials were improperly conducted. One on Asthma in children shows that there was no sham group to compare with for example. Another that stood out for me shows such extraordinary results that I wish I had a subscription to the Journal that published it to see if there were any follow-ups or rebuttals.

RESULTS: Wounds in the magnet group healed in an average of 15.3 days, significantly faster than those in either the sham group (20.9 days, P = .006) or control group (20.3 days, P < .0001). There was no statistically significant difference between the sham and control groups (P = .45).

CONCLUSIONS: An externally applied, low-power, static magnetic field increases the rate of secondary healing. Review of the literature reveals conflicting evidence regarding the use of magnetic energy to aid the healing of bone, tendon, and skin. Level I studies are lacking and difficult to execute but are needed to define conclusively the role of magnets in clinical practice.

Eplasty: Journal of Burns and Wounds. 2008 July. 25;8:e40. PMID: 18725953

The claim is that a magnet caused the rats’ wounds to heal 25% quicker. That’s an astonishing claim and one that ought to be researched further if there has been no flaws found in the trial. But putting myself in the place of a researcher on the trial I can think of a dozen problems that might be found, e.g.

  • I made the wounds on the control group a little deeper
  • I treated the control group a little more roughly when measuring their progress
  • I fed and watered the magnet group with more/better food

etc. etc.

8. A site with links to trials with positive outcomes

There are more than twenty trials listed here but not a single one of them is one of those that reported nothing more than a placebo effect. Since those studies exist and since nowhere on this site, as far as I can find, do they mention any doubts about the efficacy of the treatment, there is an obvious bias here. I didn’t take the time to read all of the studies but to take the first one mentioned:

At 4 hours, VAS pain scores (+/- SE) on a 5-item scale (0-500, 500 worst) decreased 79 +/- 18 mm in the active group and 10 +/- 21 mm in the placebo group (P < 0.05). There were no significant differences in any primary or secondary measure of efficacy between the treatment groups at 6 weeks. Despite widespread testing for magnetic properties, at study end, 69% of the active group and 77% of the placebo group (P > 0.2) believed that they had been assigned to the active treatment group. CONCLUSION: Despite our small sample size, magnets showed statistically significant efficacy compared to placebo after 4 hours under rigorously controlled conditions.

I don’t see how they can possibly have that conclusion! After a session the patients showed better pain reduction with magnets than with sham treatment. Fair enough but has there been any attempt to blind the medical staff giving the treatment from whether it is real or sham? Studies have shown that this is hugely important to the outcome. It is not mentioned.

The final outcome after six weeks of treatment shows no difference in efficacy. That alone shows that the treatment was no more than placebo. After the trial is over the subtleties of patient response to the professional will have decayed and the actual efficacy becomes more apparent to the patient.

Given that the above disagree with each other, I have to conclude that the response to a session must be down to some factor during the session, that possibly being the professional’s knowledge of which treatment is being administered.

9. Alternative Medicine at About.com

Reference is made to 5 papers and the site must be given some credit for appearing balanced. However it does end up being rather confused because of it. It starts by saying there is little evidence but then states.

Even though claims that magnetic therapy can treat diseases like cancer and multiple sclerosis are unfounded, there is some evidence that it may help relieve pain related to these chronic conditions

It claims that Arthritic and Pelvic pain studies are positive. On the other hand it states that a fybromalgia study failed to account for the better quality of beds patients were resting in and that

in studies on the use of magnetic therapy for relief of chronic low back pain and wrist pain related to carpal tunnel syndrome, researchers found magnets no more effective than placebo treatments

Again, credit to them for at giving both positive and negative findings.

10. The National Centre for Complementary and Alternative Medicine

There is actually the best source of information in the top 10 links. It gives a good overview of what the treatment has been used for, historically and contemporarily, what magnets are, how they are used, what the speculation is over what they might do, and what the trials show.

Preliminary scientific studies of magnets for pain have produced mixed results. Overall, there is no convincing scientific evidence to support claims that magnets can relieve pain of any type. Some studies, including a recent National Institutes of Health (NIH) clinical trial for back pain, suggest the possibility of a small benefit from using magnets for pain. However, the majority of rigorous studies have found no effect on pain.

Notice they say preliminary and notice that they go on to say:

More research on magnets for pain is needed before reaching any firm conclusion.

More rigorous research is needed before reaching any firm conclusions about the effectiveness of magnets for pain.

They have been very professional in their approach to the topic but I do think those two statements indicate they really really want to believe it’ll work. I’d disagree and say that the best run studies have shown there is no benefit above placebo and that they constitute a large enough body of evidence to put the subject to rest. Either way it’s a good page on the subject.

Summary

So far I have not found any good quality trials with positive results. I haven’t even found any trials yet that cover most of the claims of the Trion:Z bracelets – reduced stress, better concentration, more powerful golf swings etc! The Cochrane Organization doesn’t have any meta-analyses on any Magnet-related subject.

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The UK General Election

Well I am very disappointed at the lack of people voting for the Liberal Democrats this morning. Initially I wanted to say that people bottled it and decided to vote Conservative but if we look at the shift in votes for each party as a percentage of the total that doesn’t appear to be the case.

With 617 of 650 seats declared so far the voting for each party is:

Conservative

  • 10,168,583 Votes
  • 36.1% of Votes
  • +3.9%
  • 291 Seats
  • 47.2% of Seats

Labour

  • 8,236,191 Votes
  • 29.2% of Votes
  • -6.3%
  • 248 Seats
  • 40.2% of Seats

Liberal Democrat

  • 6,435,621 Votes
  • 22.9% of Votes
  • +1.0
  • 51 Seats
  • 8.3% of Seats

Democratic Unionist Party

  • 168,216 Votes
  • 0.6% of Votes
  • -0.3% Change
  • 8 Seats
  • 1.3% of Seats

Scottish National Party

  • 482,823 Votes
  • 1.7% of Votes
  • +0.1% Change
  • 6 Seats
  • 1.0% of Seats

The shift in voting

In Elections a 5% swing is considered to be large and a swing of 10% is huge – roughly what Tony Blair achieved in 1997. The swing from Labour to Conservative in this election was 5.1%, with a few seats still to declare. So political commentators talk about this as significant and in terms of the numbers of seats it is indeed a big change. Still it seems pretty feeble to me. The net change is only 1 in 20 people decided to change from voting Labour to Conservative. I’m not going to attempt to analyse this as it would take an age to discuss all the issues and the tactical decisions that might be involved. There’s plenty of comment from more qualified people all over the networks. But I am underwhelmed by the change when you consider the nature of the pre-election discussions about the state of the economy and unelected prime ministers.

Proportional Representation

What really is interesting in this is how the constituency based, first past the post system skews the ratios of votes to seats. For the parties outlined above the number of seats per million votes is:

  • Conservative Party 28.6
  • Labour Party 30.11
  • Liberal Democrat Party 7.92
  • Democratic Unionist Party 46.56
  • Scottish Nationalist Party 12.4

So a vote for the DUP is 50% more effective than a vote for Labour and four times as effective as one for the SNP. A vote for the Conservative Party is almost four times as effective as a vote for the Lib Dems. And voting for the DUP in Northern Ireland or for the Green Party in Brighton Pavillion is five to six times more effective than voting for the Lib Dems in general. If anyone fails to see the unfairness in this system then I despair!

If the seats were allocated on a pure proportional representation basis these 617 seats would be allocated:

  • Conservative 222 (-69)
  • Labour 180 (-71)
  • Lib Dem 141 (+89)
  • DUP 4 (-4)
  • SNP 10 (+4)
  • Sinn Fein 3 (-1)
  • Plaid Cymru 4 (+1)
  • SDLP 2 (-1)
  • Green 6 (+5)
  • Alliance Party 1 (+0)
  • UKIP 19 (+19)
  • BNP 12 (+12)
  • UCU-NF 2 (+2)
  • And a few others with 1 seat up from 0.

You can clearly see what an enormous impact proportional representation would have on the system. Electoral reform does appear to be on the cards and in my next post I will examine the Alternative Vote System that the Lib Dems want to see implemented and could make a requirement of any pact they make to form a government. The pure proportional system has the problem of not having MP’s representing specific regions. The AVS system tries to keep proportionality at its heart but have regional MPs.

Defenders of the current system say that it leads to strong governments. In the past this has been mostly true although I think that the critics of the system claiming that this one election proves this is wrong are themselves wrong. One anecdote does not make data. However I think that a hung parliament is for the best and proportional systems would almost always lead to one. It forces the parties to work together on the ideas that unify them and it creates some give and take which means the actions of the parliament more closely match the desires of the populace. In the current system a party can have a majority in the house with barely 40% of the vote and then run roughshod over the desires of 60% of the population!

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War on bogus webstore claims!

Following on from my success with my ASA complaint about the Tourmaline bracelet I am now going all out to remove as many similar adverts from as many webstores as possible.

I’ve short-listed 20 websites in the UK that are currently selling these products and have initiated a conversation with the Trading Standards Institute.

Minus Ions are generally abundant in nature through plants, waterfalls, rain storms and forests. These Ions unfortunately are depleted in urban areas as a result of modern technology.

So the logical conclusion must be that before urbanisation and technology, the world was infused with ‘Minus Ions’. A Negative Ion is, of course, an atom carrying an extra electron. So the question is where did all those extra electrons come from back then and where did they go to since? Not to mention why de-ionising myself would be good, even if it happened, and by what method it might produce any of the results that the various sites claim – from reducing stress, to improving the power of your golf swing.

Most of the websites selling these things claim they use ‘Medical Grade Magnets’. I did a search for this term. It ONLY appears in the context of Woo like this, never in any official medical context. And what would a medical grade magnet be anyway? A particularly clean one?

I will update more as things progress.

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Complaining Again!

This probably affects a LOT of people who have financed a purchase and decided to repay early, so I hope I can explain it well and that you pass this on!

I financed a car recently and since I’m a sucker for a bit of maths I decided to work out how much I felt my repayment would be. I found a large difference between the amount I calculated and the amount the company wanted me to pay. I figured that the company would levy some penalties against me for early settlement of my arrangement but I wasn’t expecting such a large amount.

As I investigated this with the company I discovered that my calculations were actually wrong. Not that I did my math improperly but that the way the loan was constructed and the way the contract was carefully written meant I had failed to include a couple of figures in my sums.

First off I had not been aware that two fees in my arrangement were not included in the top level figure, ‘Total Amount for Credit’. Well go figure! The ‘Total Amount for Credit’ was in fact NOT the ‘Total Amount for Credit’. There was an additional fee added to this number (bad finance company!!) and there was another fee due at the end of the loan which wasn’t financed (understandable but not at all clear).

Once all this was worked out there was still a difference between my calculation and their calculation and although it was now much smaller it was still over one hundred and fifty pounds. So I decided to dig deeper and this is where the useful advice comes…

Credit contracts in the UK are governed by the Consumer Credit Regulations. Repaying these contracts before their term is covered by the Consumer Credit (Early Settlement) Regulations 2004. If you want to go read it please just ignore the equations on calculating repayments – they’re actually just a way of stating something much easier and obvious to calculate on a spreadsheet.

Here’s the important thing. When you tell your lender that you want to settle early they must send you a letter that tells you how much you must repay and when. The ‘when’ is crucial. It is a legal entity referred to as the ‘Settlement Date’ in the Regulations. Once the company states the date it is set in stone.

Now your lender will set a Settlement Date of 28 days after you ask for an early settlement. This is to allow them to claim 28 days more interest from you which is fine. However they may at their discretion delay the settlement by another 30 days, allowing them to net 58 days more interest in total. Again this seems perfectly reasonable. There has to be some give and take when you want to get out of a contract.

The important thing is that they can’t just tell you to pay them the relevant amount at any arbitrary time. If they only defer by 28 days then the payment is due in 28 days. If they defer by 58 days then the payment is due in 58 days.

My lender made this crucial mistake. They charged me 58 days interest but stated the Settlement Date as only 28 days after my request. I bitched about this to them repeatedly and told them if they continued to demand the money I would take them to the ombudsman. I quoted repeatedly from the Regulations and lo and behold they told me to keep the extra 30 days interest. However, of course, they accept no liability and insist that their contracts and arrangements are perfectly inline with the law. Their withdrawal of the demand was simply ‘in the interests of continuing customer satisfaction’.

BULLSHIT!

Anyway I won and the important thing is always to check that you are not being charged this extra 30 days interest and being asked for it before it is due.

Also you should know that under the regulations they are not permitted to otherwise charge you ANY other penalties or fees for early settlement. If you have been charged any such fee on a finance deal, pick up the phone and get complaining!

Oh and here’s another little trick they try and pull. They try to get you to overpay the loan and then return you the difference. This arises because you are required to continue paying your normal payments up until the settlement date. But in their letter to you they will typically tell you the amount in total that you need to pay between now and the settlement date, including what your regular payments will be. Imagine you were paying $100 per month on this example loan and you’ve been told you owe $1000 in 58 days. You are going to make two payments in that 58 day period then blindly send them $1000 and find that in a month or so you get $200 back.

The regulations state that the settlement amount should be only what you need to pay on that date to finish up. I refused to pay my lender the extra money, pointing out that they had absolutely no right to demand it and that they were once again breaking the regulations by suggesting in their wording that I was required to overpay. Again they backed down.

Bullet point summary incoming!

  • Don’t let them charge you 58 days interest over 28 days.
  • Don’t let them make you overpay.
  • Don’t let them charge you ANY other penalties for settling early
  • I’m not a lawyer but I won on all counts against a very large finance house.
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Advertising Standards

I can’t believe I forgot to blog about this!

A well known UK internet shop that specialises in gifts/gadgets sent me an email before Christmas advertising the latest additions to its catalogue. The main part of the image-based email was a large advert for a watch. Particularly a watch that looked exactly like this one here or here.

The watch is made with Tourmaline and claims to improve circulation, relieve stress and several other claims are made of the same ilk.

Since I knew this was all Bullshit! (TM Penn and Teller) I decided to make a complaint. It’s a bit complicated to work out exactly who you have to complain to but eventually I worked out I could approach the Advertising Standards Authority under one sections of their remit:

  • Commercial e-mail and SMS text message ads

You would have thought that I could also complain to the ASA about the advert on the website, but that is not covered by their remit, bizarrely:

  • Advertisements on the Internet, including banner and display ads and paid-for (sponsored) search (not claims on companies’ own websites)

For the advert on their website I had to look further. First I headed over to Consumer Direct. That didn’t help much though as their advice covers how to go about making complaints on transactions you have been involved in.

Trading Standards were the people I wanted, not to be confused with the Office of Fair Trading, although I couldn’t tell you why both exist or what each do. Trading Standards is a function of each county council. But when you drill down through the web pages you find out that, even though you (I) couldn’t find it there, you actually need to go and talk to Consumer Direct!

So I did. I emailed them and they passed my query to my council’s trading standards department (even though I had shown that the company and its website were based in a different region, ‘whois’ rocks!).

Oh, my complaint! I simply pointed out that the claims made in the advert and the email were unsubstantiated, citing the lack of any medical papers on the subject etc etc.

I never did hear anything back from Trading Standards but they apparently don’t normally contact the complainant anyway. They investigate and take action. Whether they did do anything I don’t know. I hope so!

But I did get a response from the ASA. Two letters. One came in about a month after my complaint, on December 21st, stating what their procedures would involve them doing – contacting the company and asking them to comment on the complaint and provide evidence to backup their claims before making a decision.

The second letter came on 4th February and it states:

We contacted ##### Ltd to ask for their comments on the complaint and for them to submit evidence to substantiate their claims. They responded by advising that the claims were given to them by a third party supplier and that they had subsequently withdrawn the ad with no plans to use it again.

We reminded ##### of the responsibility of advertisers under the CAP Code to ensure that the claims they publish are supported by robust evidence. However in light of their response, we no longer believe that there is a need to put the matter to the ASA Council for an adjudication. Instead we have sought a written assurance from ##### that th claims will not be used again.

One piece of Woo/Bullshit! (TM Penn and Teller) down. Several million to go.

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Could the Pope be arrested?

In all the recent news about abuse in the Catholic church that has been some speculation that even if direct blame could be placed at the feet of the Pope then he would not be arrested or tried for it. As a head of state he would have diplomatic immunity. The only heads of state that have ever been tried, that I’m aware of, were Milosevic who was tried for war-crimes which an exception was made for, and Pinochet who was at the time no longer head of state.

The Pope will never stop being head of state as he will remain in office until death and he hasn’t committed any war-crimes (other than joining the Hitler Youth) so it would seem nigh on impossible that blame would ever be laid upon him in a court of law.

Until now! Dawkins and Hitchens are investigating whether or not they could have the Pope arrested during his state visit to the UK. I think it’s still highly unlikely to happen but it’s more critical news in the media which can only encourage him to get his house in order.

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UK Airport Scanners and Liberty

I’m a bit late to the party on this but I thought the vitriol and fury being vented about the new scanners at UK airports was a bit on an over-reaction – or at least the reaction was for all the wrong reasons.

The first story I read that made me think to write about them was some time ago on the BBC. I seem to be in a fair minority but I don’t have a problem with the kinds of images that it produces. It’s not the sort of image I would choose to have made of me but then I’m not intending to post it on my facebook profile. And do you seriously think that the person viewing the images – hundreds or thousands of them in a shift – is going to actually care that you have a little penis or a slightly chubby arse, digitally rendered in slightly vague greyscale? They don’t have a photo of you to go along with it. It’s not like some pervy bloke is going to be sat there looking for fit girls so he can see what they look like under their clothes.

I’m sure some people must have brought up “oh but the poor children!” and probably even “oh but what about the pedos!”. Most likely these are the same people who let their kids go butt-naked on the beach. Most likely they’re the same people who think that a Pedophile is the same thing as a Pediatrician. Did you notice that one of the finalists in Masterchef (UK) this year was a ‘Children’s Doctor’? In the first round his caption actually said “Pediatrician” but we dumbed it down so as not to confuse the witless.

It is worth noting that the scanners used in the US are able to store and offload the images which we were assured they could not do. I am not aware of any reason to believe the UK or Dutch scanners can do the same.

I haven’t actually taken a flight since these scanners were introduced in the UK. They should remove the need for people to remove coats, belts etc, although shoes will probably have to come off still as the picture angle is horizontal and can’t really scan the shoes’s soles properly. But when I went through a US airport last they STILL made us take all that stuff off. That is just bloody stupid. It’s utterly unnecessary and it would really help people accept them more readily if it alleviated a lot of the hassle (and bottleneck) in getting through those controls.

Has anyone been through the new scanners yet in the UK? Has it improved transit speeds through there?

Anyway, despite the fact that I’m not really bothered by the images these scanners make what does annoy me enormously is the two-facedness and hypocrisy of the government. In 2008 the EU Parliament refused to support the EU Commission’s desire to implement the scanners across Europe because:

In MEPs’ opinion, the measure is “equivalent to a virtual strip search” and “has a serious impact on the right to privacy…and personal dignity”. British Conservative Philip Bradbourn MEP said that such scans “were a grave violation of the right of privacy and a degrading measure”.

Then late last year they suddenly started getting trialed in Manchester. In 18 months all the ‘grave violations’ of people’s rights were no longer a concern. Now we were being told that it’ll help us get through the security checks faster and therefore it’s fine to have a trial. The public were outraged and it would seem that any government who actually cared about PR would just let the trial end and drop them.

But…

On Boxing Day 2009 a man attempted to blow up a plane traveling from Amsterdam to Detroit. And suddenly the scanners were a ‘proportionate reaction’ to the threat. The scanners were suddenly implemented everywhere.

Perhaps I missed something here? Perhaps you did to? This man boarded a plane in Amsterdam – which started using these body scanners in 2007. Yet they didn’t see fit to scan passengers transferring from a flight from a country as ‘interesting’ as Nigeria to a flight to the US. In fact I’ve flown through Schiphol airport numerous times since 2007 and I’ve never been scanned once. I haven’t even seen the machines.

You might also notice that the article states that the millimetre wavelength radiation used bounces off the skin and nothing is absorbed. Referring to the article about the Manchester Trial again the head of the airport’s “Customer Experience” team says:

“Passengers can go through this machine 5,000 times a year each without worrying. The amount of radiation transmitted is tiny.”

So is it tiny or is it nothing? It might be trivial compared to a day in the sun or a minor x-ray but there is a difference between something and nothing. I certainly would not want my pregnant wife to go through the scanner – just because that’s how you treat pregnant women! It may well be irrational but it’s also an evolutionary imperative to protect them!

Refer back to the Manchester Trial again. It specifically states that people will be able to decline the scan and be patted down instead. But of course this only applied to the trial. Anyone who refuses now is turned away and not allowed to pass through the security checks.

You might also notice this:

The scanners, made by RapiScan Systems, have already been tried at Heathrow Airport from 2004 to 2008.

Well I went through Heathrow at least a dozen times in that period and I wasn’t scanned once. So it seems to me that the trials were shams. The Manchester one appears to have been genuinely implemented but the others I have serious doubts about. It really looks like we were being conditioned to accept something that the government(s) knew we would rail against.

Did you also know that the EU Parliament bought six of these machines at enormous tax-payer expense to protect the parliamentary buildings in Brussels and Strasbourg? Well the MEP’s decided they didn’t want to be scanned. And they still don’t want to be scanned. So they’ve been trying to sell them and trying again. No luck though!

So is the threat any greater than it was before the Boxing Day bombing attempt? Was there some new intelligence that made these scanners a proportionate reaction? After all, these scanners were rushed in as a response to the attempt but they have no legitimate place if the danger is not higher. Nor do they have any legitimacy if the use of them is a sufficient invasion of privacy that does not offset their benefit. As I said at the top I wouldn’t care if they just said “hey these will get you through security quicker and we promise never to allow the pictures to be stored or offloaded” and they were right on both counts.

I don’t recall the terror alert status getting any higher. It was definitely higher nearer 9/11 and it must have been really high around the time of the Iraq invasion and the start of the Afghanistan operations. How is it that one more failed attempt at bombing a plane means the threat is now higher? One would actually think it’s lower. One more would-be bomber is out of circulation and every other would-be bomber has been reminded yet again how difficult it is to pull it off.

So are we actually any safer with these things installed? The head of InterPol doesn’t think so and on German TV they have demonstrated how the machines can’t even detect the kinds of materials that a bomber might use these days.

All we have is a greater perception of a threat because we see measures like these implemented. All we have achieved is to increase the fear that people live under. This is not a fair game to play. If every time something gets past security we decrease people’s liberties and/or privacies to counteract it then we will be in a permanently escalating state of deprivation. There will always be someone who gets past security and we have to accept that. In fact I think the vast majority of people do accept it. But the government use the perception that it is an acceptable game to play to put us further and further under the thumb. Maybe, as some of my friends believe, it is a deliberate choice made to deprive us of our liberty whilst getting us to agree to and accept it. Maybe, as I more moderately believe, politicians honestly think that these apparently positive actions serve to protect us and to get them votes. Either way I think the game is up and people won’t stand for much more of it. The level of risk that people are prepared to live with if it preserves their liberty is much higher than it is now and it applies to many many more areas of our lives than just airport scanners. CCTV’s, the Police, ID Cards, RFID Tags in everything, teacher’s rights to censure pupils, even the right of a parent to smack a child. The last years of government legislation has really revolved around finding a liberty that COULD be abused and then taking that liberty away from everyone just in case someone abuses it, even when there is a law that already prohibits them from abusing it.

The only problem is, do we have enough liberty left to reclaim what we’ve lost?

Benjamin Franklin said it first and he said it best:

Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.

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Organic Farming

There is a great deal of media exposure these days about Organic food and Organic farming and it is ALWAYS asociated with several presumptions:

1. That Organic Farming is better for the environment.
2. That Organic Food tastes better.

From my own previous discoveries I have several pre-formed opinions:

A. Organic Farming’s output is sufficiently lower than non-Organic farming that we could not feed everyone if we all adopted it.
B. Organic Farming in general MAY not be the same thing as sustainable farming and non-organic farming practices MAY be sustainable.
C. Organic produce is no better in taste or nutrition.

Being a person of sound scientific method I am open to changing my opinions based on evidence. So I will try to address both the media assumptions and my own views. But first we need to know exactly what Organic Farming is. Does it mean no chemical fertilizer or pesticide? No fertilizer or pesticide at all? There must be differences from farmer to farmer but in terms of the legal ‘Organic’ phrasing in UK shops, what does it mean? Must they be non-GM products? What does GM even mean? Where’s the boundary between Modified and Genetically Modified?

Firstly the term Organic in relation to farming or produce is a generic one. To sell your food as Organic you must be certified by an agency. The most well known of these bodies, in the UK, is The Soil Association.

It was quite a wild goosechase to get to that previous statement that seems so trivial. From Wikipedia I found DEFRA from where I (eventually!) found the right BusinessLink URL for Organic certification, which here in the UK, is defined by the European Union and regulated by DEFRA. You have to be certified by a Certification Body of which, in the UK, there are 9 approved bodies. The link to find this list took me back from businesslink to DEFRA again. But then each of these bodies has its own certification requirements – they may be very similar but they are not the same – and from this page you can only get an email address for some of these bodies – apparently they don’t all even have a website!

So what can I find out about their certification? After a bit of searching I found their information pack and downloaded the one appropriate to agricultural farming. Only problem is that there’s nothing in there about what you have to do, just contractual stuff and an application form. Eventually I downloaded a standards document which is the closest I can find to a set of instructions.

So what’s involved? For the most part it’s what you would expect. Genetically Modified Organisms and nanotechnology are absolute no-no’s. Crop rotation is required. Packaging has to be ‘Green’. But there is a lot of content about everything beyond the actual food itself. From managing hedgerows to protecting forests, from keeping uncultivated land for wildlife to maintaining and restoring old buildings. Of course there is a great deal of detail on managing the soil, from not doing any deep ploughing to only using natural and organic fertilisers.

There are exceptions to pretty much every rule but they generally say “Where not possible to use organic xxx you MAY…”. However the sheer number of exceptions listed for supplemental nutrients is shockingly large. It speaks about “Where Justified” and “Heavy Metal Analyses” and “With Approval” but there are TEN such revisions taking up several times more space in the document than the actual Rules. See section 4.8. This same pattern is repeated in section 4.11 regarding the use of pesticides.

It would take a biochemist to state whether the options available to Organic farmer for Fertiliser and Pesticide “where justified” are relatively harmless compared to what is regularly used on non-organic farms. And it would take a team of researchers and a Freedom of Information act to work out how much non-organic fertiliser and pesticide is being used in our supposedly organic food. The conclusion one must draw though from the sheer number of exceptions in these rules compared to the rest of the document is that the Soil Association is having to give in to farmers’ needs to keep productivity up.

Interestingly you cannot burn crop stubble which, as anyone can tell you, is a zero carbon activity, but which I thought was the best way to return lots of nutrients to the soil. When I reflect on that I suppose it is the best way to get some nutrients back into the soil quickly so you can replant the field for the very next season, but if you are using crop rotation letting the field lie fallow and then mowing/ploughing is probably better. At least you allow everything to break down that way rather than risk losing some of the nutrient content to oxidation.

Overall the intentions of these Organic Certifying Bodies is undoubtedly good and I really applaud the requirements concerning wildlife habitats, boundaries, buildings and all the ancillary stuff that isn’t the food itself. But, given my above points about the exceptions to the rules, I have serious doubts as to whether the average Organic food is any more ‘organic’ than food produced on a modern non-organic farm which simply uses sensible policies. Just recently the BBC ran a program on farming in Australia where by creating custom nutrient mixes based on each field’s requirements the farmers have seen an increase in productivity and a decrease in both volume and cost of fertilisers. In the same program the same farming consultant showed how he had created another additive which allowed the water that the irrigation system delivered to penetrate deeper into the soil resulting in stronger plants and less water used.

If the soil on your farm is just deficient in Manganese don’t you think it’s better to take your waste (which may well be ‘organic’) and process it in a factory to produce a Manganese product for you and other products for someone else, rather than just dumping a generic product with everything in it on your land? And do you think that plants grow differently depending on whether that Manganese is organic or synthetic? Do you think any other part of the eco-system that it may get into reacts differently based on its origin? If Manganese is harmful, say in the nearby river, then is it better to dump a small amount in the river from using a small amount of organic fertiliser or is it better to dump a tiny amount in the river from using the precise amount (large or small) of a modern, targeted, soil-penetrating, synthetic?

What I’m trying to get at here is that Science is a tool to be used. Without doubt in the past huge amounts of broad spectrum fertilisers have been dumped on fields simply because ‘they do the job’. However modern farming techniques use targeted fertilisation and pesticidal techniques. This is cheaper and results in the minimal amount of run-off from the fields to the rivers for the maximum crop yield. If I can create a targeted fertiliser that results in no run-off from your field but it happens to be synthetic and not organic would it not be the right thing to do to use that instead of the organic solution? Does it therefore not follow that a certifiably organic product may not have been produced in the most environmentally friendly way? And isn’t the real driver behind organic produce that of being Green?

Moving on, consider for a moment what a genetically modified organism is. The particular phrasing means that a scientist in a laboratory has specifically altered the gene sequence of an organism in order to change something about it. It may be that the change makes it glow in the dark, or have larger leaves, or be resistant to a parasite. It might even make the fruit of the plant produce a chemical which can be manipulated through the ingestion of another chemical to produce an immune reaction. This last point is salient. We know how to modify rice such that by prescribing a simple pill people will gain the same benefits as an anti-malarial injection – it’s been done with mice already – and it could save millions of lives. The conventional injection techniques do not reach the vast majority of people who need them because of the need to refrigerate them. I’ve been searching for the link to this article but sadly cannot find it – it seems to have been lost in the furore of on using modified mosquitos instead!

So are GMO’s evil? No. Could they be mis-used? Yes. Can you trust the companies that are going to produce these things? In general of course you can. They may backstab each other and stories about them forcing farmers to burn crops that have been contaminated with their patented GMO may be true, but ultimately they want to make money. And how do you make money? By selling a successful product to more and more consumers. If you damage or even kill your consumers you generally lose money, go bankrupt or go to prison. In addition I DO trust the scientists who do the actual ground work, the tests to see if there are any unintended side-effects; and I trust the government bodies who approve products for use.

But take away the word ‘Genetically’ and you’re still left with something ‘Modified’ and we’ve been modifying food since humans first stopped wandering nomadically and became a sedentary society at least as far back as 11,000 years ago, when, as the megafauna of North America declined, the Clovis people turned to cultivation of plants for an increasing amount of their diet. Naturally they re-cultivated the strongest and highest yielding plants and those with the most useful products. Within only a few hundred years they had created, by selective cultivation, plant breeds that could not survive without human intervention.

In the rather more recent past, from the 1950’s onwards, large-scale and intensive cross-breeding produced most of the strains of cereal crops that are grown around the world today. Even those grown on organic farms are Modified by the actions of the past. These breeds would not exist without human intervention in their genome, albeit through macroscopic manipulation. There is an Episode of Penn and Teller’s “Bullshit” which discusses this in some detail that I would highly recommend viewing. This “Green Revolution” was driven by Normal Borlaug who is often referred to as having saved 1 billion lives with his work.

I should also mention a program I watched on the BBC a few weeks ago on farming and specifically one farmer who had some wonderful (and organic) farming methods that had increased his yields, completely removed his need for fertiliser and reduced his waste products.

His cattle were confined to a relatively small tranche of a field at any time. There was plenty of room for them have no fear but he had parcelled his fields off into 30 or more smaller fields. They were kept in a given tranche for just a few days at a time and then moved to the next. The first result of this was that the cattle had changed their grazing style. Rather than pick and choose the best grass from a larger field they simply ate what was in front of them. It wasn’t that they had to eat the area bare to get enough to eat but rather as the farmer described it, the cattle knew they wouldn’t be able to eat that grass in the near future so they just grabbed whatever was nearest. This keeps the entire field area in a growth cycle rather than just the best bits of it. I assume that it beneficial for the field as nature’s abhorrence for a vacuum will surely increase the nutrient levels in those less luscious areas of the field if the plants require the nutrients to regrow. Additionally I assume that the cattle are better off for having a more varied diet.

The next step in the process is to move the cattle on to the next tranche and to introduce hens to the tranche the cattle have just left. The hens do several things. First they stamp and strut through the cow-pats, mixing it with the grass to form a high quality fertiliser. Secondly they feed on the parasites in the cow-pats. As a direct result of the latter the cattle have become entirely disease free and the farmer claimed that he had reduced his vet bills for the herd to zero.

The farmer had reduced his bills, improved the quality of his fields, increased the meat yield from the herd AND gained another source of income from the hen’s eggs whilst utilising the exact same space as he had previously. This is sustainable farming working brilliantly.

A second system the farmer had set up was to have a barn with rabbits in mesh cages, suspended above the floor. On the floor were more hens. The rabbits and hens both require a food input for this and additionally sawdust is scattered across the floor. The rabbits provide the farmer with meat and pelts and the hens mix the rabbit droppings with the sawdust to make fertiliser that can be sold, as well as laying eggs. The farmer makes a significant profit and has no waste products.

These are the kinds of techniques that we need to be encouraging. An organic certificate does not ensure that these kinds of approaches with minimal inputs (particularly fertilisers and pesticides which are the pollutants we really need to cut down on) and maximal outputs are being used. But neither does not having said certificate mean that methods like this are not being used.


I have been looking for evidence in the Organic vs Non-Organic Debate but it’s not easy to find a proper discussion on it.

My first search was for ‘Organic farming pros and cons’ and my first link was to this hugely long domain name. As I started reading it I thought it seemed quite rational. The page is even titled ‘Advantages AND disadvantages of…’. However by a third of the way down the page I realised something was awry. Perhaps you’ll notice that there are no links to any research or that there are lots of links to books for you to buy.

The graph of cancer rates fails to correct for anything except life expectancy so it remains a graph showing the impact of everything else on cancer rates. Everything else and Exposure to toxic chemicals are not the same.

And lastly the Disadvantages section claims all perceived disadvantages to be advantages or at least desirable.

My second search result led me to Buzzle.com. Sadly this website falls down on its homepage with the bold statement that:

Organic Farming is a technique used in farming without the use of any chemicals or synthetics.

As we already know that is incorrect. Synthetics are allowed.

Aim of organic farming is to produce crops which have the highest nutritional values with least impact on nature.

We have yet to address this issue. We will shortly!

Crop rotation, green manure, use of natural fertilizers and biological pest control form the crux of organic farming. It is a proactive ecology management strategy. This strategy enhances the fertility of the soil, prevents soil erosion and at the same time protects the humans and animal kingdom from the side-effects of chemicals and synthetics.

Crop rotation does enhance soil fertility by giving it time to recover between periods of intensive use. However many non-organic farmers do this anyway as purely sustainable, green and economic sense. Soil erosion is caused by deep ploughing – another thing that most farmers do not do anymore.

Organically grown food tastes better too.

We haven’t addressed this yet but no evidence is offered by the site.

The overall cost of cultivating the crops reduces as the farmers use green manure or worm farming to replenish the lost nutrients of the soil.

Kind of… All farmers will re-use their own ‘organic’ waste products if it is the appropriate source of nutrients for their fields. However if the soil is deficient in something specific the most effective, sustainable and cheapest solution is a narrow-spectrum fertiliser which may or may not be organic.

The life of organically grown plants is longer than the plants cultivated by traditional methods.

A plant only grows the way it is genetically programmed to grow. It matters not what nature of external forces acted on it. The lifespan of a given species will always be the same with the same inputs – whatever their source.

Organically grown crop is more drought tolerant.

Totally incorrect. GMO crops are vastly more drought tolerant than unmodified versions of crops. The gene that makes them so came from an existing crop of course. Nature provided it and we copied it.

And the site continues to be inaccurate when it comes to the disadvantages of Organic farming, although I give it a little credit for mentioning that there are some:

The first disadvantage of organic farming is low productivity. With the highly developed chemicals and machinery, the farmer is able to multiply his harvest manifold times. The organic farmers use the cultivation method as opposed to drilling method used by the traditional farmers. The cultivated soil is prone to wind and water erosion. The traditional farmers opine that direct drilling does not cause any disharmony in the soil structure.

Organic farming uses machinery too you know!? Traditional farming also eschews deep ploughing because of the problems it causes with the soil.

The next argument, which goes against organic farming, is that the organically produced food is expensive. The cost is very often 50-100 percent more than the traditional food.

This doesn’t have to be the case. If you take the examples above of the farmer with cattle/hens or rabbits/hens he was able to produce more for less. By being sustainable your costs will always be lower and by manipulating synergies you can increase your yields. But sustainability does not go hand in hand with the presence or lack of an organic certificate. Being sustainable is an entirely independant call. Yes there will (always?) be some farmers willing to dump vast amounts of fertiliser on their land to gain a short term productivity that cannot be rivaled and to make a small margin of profit on a lot of product. But hopefully we can make them see sense.

The other valid argument is that organic food is not always available. There is a reason behind that. The organic farmers grow crops in accordance to the season. Neither do they artificially grow any crop nor do they extend the life of the plant or use chemicals, synthetics or pesticides. Therefore, oranges will be found only in winters and mangoes only in summer. Looking at it from the health benefits point of view, there is no doubt that you will benefit if you eat a particular food item, when it is actually in season.

There’s no reason you can’t create organic food out of season. I don’t recall anything from the Soil Association’s guidelines that preclude the use of UV Lights. I admit it’s fairly unlikely that an organic farmer would use them but either way there’s nothing unsustainable about the poly-tunnels in The Netherlands that produce an enormous proportion of the UK’s vegetables on a tiny amount of land. As a sealed system the ‘run-off’ could be collected and processed to prevent any pollution which would in fact be more sustainable and Green than anything else.

The last statement about benefits of eating foods in season just leaves me bemused. Can anyone think of any reason why anyone would even put this forward as a rational hypothesis?

Anyway, enough of quoting from random websites. I have to assume that, somewhere out there, there exist equally biased sources on information on the other side of the fence. I haven’t found one yet but they must exist. If someone hasn’t come up with it already I announce the law that ‘If it can be perceived of then it exists on the internet’, which is probably analogous to infinite monkeys and typewriters.

I still need to tackle the issue of whether organic produce tastes better.

My first search took me to TheNibble.com, a gourmet food website. In a non-scientific test 11 products were tested and:

Organic was the clear winner in one and tied in five others.

What she fails to mention is that the conventional food won in two of the remaining 5 categories (!!!) with the last three being described as ‘NONE’. I think this tied-but-not-tied result was where both products were just horrible.

So that’s twice as many wins for conventional food as for organic (which I can happily state about this non-scientific test). :)

You could also check out another episode of Bullshit which I would trust as reasonably good testing. No double-blinding but I don’t think Penn has anything to gain by fudging his results. 71% preferred non-organic products. And 90% (9/10) people were tricked into thinking that one half of a regular banana was in fact half of an organic banana. Actually this video excerpt from the same episode puts across most of what I’m writing about in the kind of manner I would normally like to put it across!

What remains to be answered? Whether or not Organic Farming could be used to feed the entire world…

I could tell you the answer is No. I could point you to the mathematics and you might respond that it’s too abstract. You might argue about crops we could use in areas we don’t currently cultivate. We could go back and forth for ever. So let’s instead ask the one man who probably ought to know, who since the 1930’s has been working on increasing crop yields around the world and feeding the starving, Norman Borlaug, in his 2000 interview with Reason Magazine:

This shouldn’t even be a debate. Even if you could use all the organic material that you have–the animal manures, the human waste, the plant residues–and get them back on the soil, you couldn’t feed more than 4 billion people. In addition, if all agriculture were organic, you would have to increase cropland area dramatically, spreading out into marginal areas and cutting down millions of acres of forests.

At the present time, approximately 80 million tons of nitrogen nutrients are utilized each year. If you tried to produce this nitrogen organically, you would require an additional 5 or 6 billion head of cattle to supply the manure. How much wild land would you have to sacrifice just to produce the forage for these cows? There’s a lot of nonsense going on here.

If people want to believe that the organic food has better nutritive value, it’s up to them to make that foolish decision. But there’s absolutely no research that shows that organic foods provide better nutrition. As far as plants are concerned, they can’t tell whether that nitrate ion comes from artificial chemicals or from decomposed organic matter. If some consumers believe that it’s better from the point of view of their health to have organic food, God bless them. Let them buy it. Let them pay a bit more. It’s a free society. But don’t tell the world that we can feed the present population without chemical fertilizer. That’s when this misinformation becomes destructive.

Since this has been such a long article, let me summarise:

1. Is Organic Farming is better for the environment?

No. Modern scientific techniques that are not necessarily compatible with the Organic Certification result in less pollution.

2. Does Organic Food taste better?
C. Organic produce is no better in taste or nutrition?

While I haven’t found any broad double-blind scientific tests, what evidence does exist is that people assume organic tastes better because they are told that it does. Ultimately a food product consists of exactly what it is genetically programmed to consist of and it doesn’t matter one iota where the elements come from to make it and therefore the nutritional content is the same.

A. Organic Farming’s output is sufficiently lower than non-Organic farming that we could not feed everyone if we all adopted it?

True. I have mentioned some methods which can increase yields for some food products but they would equally apply to non-organic farming and in the arena of crop yields which are the most important source of the world’s nutrition I bow to Mr Borlaug.

B. Organic Farming in general MAY not be the same thing as sustainable farming and non-organic farming practices MAY be sustainable?

True. While the aims of the organic movement to provide sustainability are noble this is not their core aim. Green and Organic are NOT the same as Sustainable. Both Organic and Traditional Farming can be sustainable but organic farmers are not able to use many of the best scientific techniques and products to improve their yields and reduce their pollution.

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Pope Bashing

Did you see the story about the pope being knocked down last night?

Imagine that… A mentally unstable person managed to get close enough to afront an 82 year old man in the richest most well guarded city in the world!? Begs so many questions!

Like doesn’t it seem convenient that the person who assaulted Silvio Berlusconi last week also happen to be mentally unstable?

Actually I should not cast dispersion on what may or may not be their mental state without any evidence but it would seem awfully convenient to label people who attack heads of state as mentally ill because then they can be locked up with a minimal trial for EVER.

It also begs the question as to why all popes are so old. Could it possibly be that the Vatican is so embroiled in politics that it doesn’t want any ruler to rule for too long? Could it be that it takes 82 years to become the representative of God on earth? One would imagine that a God would be powerful enough to impart the needed knowledge to you at birth. And that he would make it so frigging obvious that a life as a cleric and a vote by others who aren’t God’s chosen representative on earth wouldn’t be needed.

And let’s not forget that the Pope was a member of the Hitler Youth. What is it that those bracelets Christians are so fond of say? “What would Jesus do?”?

Yes I’m sure Jesus would join the Hitler Youth.

Really.

Sure.

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